The Biggest Risk to Your Investments
The lessons learned over 40 years in this business tend to repeat in a never-ending process.
Take last year as an example, when the haze of COVID and its related shutdowns was still very thick.
The markets “topped” on September 2nd – spending until early November meandering back and forth in a “frustrating” trade range.
It was the season as they say.
Impatient investors squirmed with each headline; certain the floor would soon drop out.
This year, the markets also “topped” on September 2nd, and have spent the last several weeks chopping through a very frustrating trade range.
Folks, there’s nothing wrong.
It’s just building up energy for the next leg of the journey.
This is the rhythm of the market.
The Real Risk…
The chop, market mayhems, flash crashes, Wall Street gibberish, volatility, and a myriad of economic troubles presented with ample media garnish, is NOT risk.
They are normal.
The patient investor wins over time.
The impatient very often sadly lose.
The real risk?
Time.
The time it takes to learn how wealth is created.
The time it takes to plan, review, and stay on the track of your goal.
And the time it takes to recognize something frustrating but true: that staying the course works better than concerning yourself with all the benchmarks and meanderings.
Sometimes the biggest risk to your investments is you.
The Crunch
And the latest market monster?
Inflation.
It’s been released by the COVID shutdowns.
Governments are also cyclical beasts. They make seemingly effective decisions, then set orders, then create compliance, then realize there are unintended consequences.
And round and round they go.
There are now over 100 ships with goods to unload sitting outside America’s west coast ports, and even more to boot on the east coast.
Collectively, over 200,000 trucking / shipping containers stand waiting to be offloaded and moved around the country.
So, if you fear that we are going to get less busy on the way to the new normal, then failure awaits you.
The end of this crunch will be helped along significantly the moment Washington DC decides it would like to stop paying people to stay home.
Thereafter, the “bell curve” of cost pressures that we’re being told is the inflation bogeyman coming alongside the grim reaper is instead just a “time and balance” issue, and not a permanent pathway to Armageddon.
It WILL help drive more and more manufacturing and supply chain elements back to our shores – so there is a silver lining.
Patience Works…
This time next year, we will be glad that our US Federal Reserve did not jump the gun.
Think about how many government officials, sans the silver spoon mob, got rich from being in business?
Very, very few.
Most got rich from a career in “public service.”
There’s no business experience to guide their crystal balls.
Meanwhile…
There are strong earnings, records, and new highs on all fronts
Note the 2022 and 2023 data points (above).
When the time comes, you will be told by experts that the 10% growth rates will be “bad” for us – compared to 2021 numbers.
And you will be told it is a slowdown and impending recession awaits.
That will be wrong.
Records will still be getting set – and life will be improving all around us in so many ways it will be hard to count.
Buckle up, folks.
Sometimes the ascent out of these base camp trade ranges can be messy.
The lessons learned over 40 years in this business tend to repeat in a never-ending process.
Take last year as an example, when the haze of COVID and its related shutdowns was still very thick.
The markets “topped” on September 2nd – spending until early November meandering back and forth in a “frustrating” trade range.
It was the season as they say.
Impatient investors squirmed with each headline; certain the floor would soon drop out.
This year, the markets also “topped” on September 2nd, and have spent the last several weeks chopping through a very frustrating trade range.
Folks, there’s nothing wrong.
It’s just building up energy for the next leg of the journey.
This is the rhythm of the market.
The Real Risk…
The chop, market mayhems, flash crashes, Wall Street gibberish, volatility, and a myriad of economic troubles presented with ample media garnish, is NOT risk.
They are normal.
The patient investor wins over time.
The impatient very often sadly lose.
The real risk?
Time.
The time it takes to learn how wealth is created.
The time it takes to plan, review, and stay on the track of your goal.
And the time it takes to recognize something frustrating but true: that staying the course works better than concerning yourself with all the benchmarks and meanderings.
Sometimes the biggest risk to your investments is you.
The Crunch
And the latest market monster?
Inflation.
It’s been released by the COVID shutdowns.
Governments are also cyclical beasts. They make seemingly effective decisions, then set orders, then create compliance, then realize there are unintended consequences.
And round and round they go.
There are now over 100 ships with goods to unload sitting outside America’s west coast ports, and even more to boot on the east coast.
Collectively, over 200,000 trucking / shipping containers stand waiting to be offloaded and moved around the country.
So, if you fear that we are going to get less busy on the way to the new normal, then failure awaits you.
The end of this crunch will be helped along significantly the moment Washington DC decides it would like to stop paying people to stay home.
Thereafter, the “bell curve” of cost pressures that we’re being told is the inflation bogeyman coming alongside the grim reaper is instead just a “time and balance” issue, and not a permanent pathway to Armageddon.
It WILL help drive more and more manufacturing and supply chain elements back to our shores – so there is a silver lining.
Patience Works…
This time next year, we will be glad that our US Federal Reserve did not jump the gun.
Think about how many government officials, sans the silver spoon mob, got rich from being in business?
Very, very few.
Most got rich from a career in “public service.”
There’s no business experience to guide their crystal balls.
Meanwhile…
There are strong earnings, records, and new highs on all fronts
Note the 2022 and 2023 data points (above).
When the time comes, you will be told by experts that the 10% growth rates will be “bad” for us – compared to 2021 numbers.
And you will be told it is a slowdown and impending recession awaits.
That will be wrong.
Records will still be getting set – and life will be improving all around us in so many ways it will be hard to count.
Buckle up, folks.
Sometimes the ascent out of these base camp trade ranges can be messy.